The Russian strategy would be recognition of independence. It leaves them with the prize without the burden of cost.

China would finance the reconstruction.
UNSC with Trump abstaining or agreeing would sanction the result due to the failure of Minsk 2 never being followed. Ukraine loses Donbass.

This, would be after a war. Porky and the Deep State want the war.
Porky must have a war to survive. Losing doesn’t matter. Fighting it does.

How this transpires, we can only guess.
At present, the Ukies have 90,000 men right along the entire front. They are mere miles from taking parts of Donetsk.

They could attack Lugansk in a run for the border, as they usually attempt.

And they could swing from Mariupol under Donetsk.

The Russian military planners will have opportunities to create three major boilers if all these occur.

And we can expect a North Wind of large size using many battle-tested Syrian War personnel.

The Russians also have to demonstrate to Poland, Romania, Lithuania and the top NATO war hawks that they can annihilate any composition of forces rapidly. So, this war, when the Ukies begin it will be a test of command, control and Voentorg with the North Wind in support of Donbass Army.

The US has Global Hawk UAV observation platform among its Intel gathering weapons flying over Ukieland.

Time to stun the NATO and Pentagon warmongers with the munitions and delivery systems that have decimated ISIS and AQ in Syria.

It is in the cards. Porky will never have it any other way. The Deep State wants to blame the loss of Donbass on Trump or get a victory against Russia. All indications are Trump can’t work a miracle.
And certainly, Russia will never give up Donbass.

Destroying the men and machines all along the front will set back the Ukies for years. Probably, lead to extensive civil war if it is truly catastrophic and well-documented. The splintering of Ukieland could follow such a total defeat. Three or four sections, the neighbors all feasting on their historic pieces.

The problem of Ukraine is Kiev, not Donbass.

If Kiev goes away, the problem goes away. The head of the snake.

All the remaining nazis can go to a small Banderastan in the West of the former state.
It’s the solution everyone would agree to after the military is decimated.

And independent Novorossiya lifts the economic burden from Russia. China and others will rush in and reconstruct and modernize the place where the workers are and the farms produce food.

We can hope something like this happens. Peace through war. There are no shortcuts.
Madmen must be defeated, their armies must be destroyed. Lesson of history.